Beyond the various economic calendar data expected for this week, there are three that could particularly have an impact on the financial markets. Of course, this includes the Bitcoin (BTC) and Cryptocurrency sector, so it should not be overlooked by its traders.
On Thursday, October 31, The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index of the main economic power will be publishedUSA. This measures the variation in the prices of goods and services purchased by households in the country.
This metric is the preferred one of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the country’s central bank, to define monetary policy, that is, interest rates. This is because it works as a more accurate indicator of inflation than the consumer price index (CPI), which calculates the price variation of a range of specific products.
The latest PCE report, released last month, recorded an annual decline of 2.5% to 2.2%. This publication was better than expected, as well as the previous report, since both were 0.1% lower than expected. Consequently, markets were driven higher then, which could be repeated if this trend continues.
The latest annual PCE reports from the United States can be seen below:
Result of the annual PCE of the last months vs. his foresight. Fountain: Investing.
Secondly, it should be noted that on the same day the weekly number of unemployment benefit applications in the United States will be announced. If this figure continues to rise, could generate headwind for the markets. In addition, monthly unemployment in Europe will also be published on this day, with possible increase.
What could be key to mitigating the results of such data is the monthly employment report in the United States that will be published on Friday, November 1. Therefore, thirdly, it is essential to take into account this announcement, which will indicate both the number of people employed in non-agricultural jobs as well as the unemployment rate.
According to the explorer survey Investingthe monthly number of nonfarm payrolls is expected to drop from 254,000 to 111,000, which may negatively impact the markets. However, if the result is better than expected, like the previous month, it is possible to keep calm.
Meanwhile, the annual unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1% like the previous month, in accordance with expectations indicated by Investing. With a result this or lower, investors could remain calm.
First week of November will be key for bitcoin
Despite the data planned for this week, it should be taken into account that markets could remain without major movements as the presidential elections in the United States approach. These will be next week, precisely on Tuesday, November 5, when it will be defined who will preside over the country’s government for the next four years.
As CriptoNoticias reported, bullish expectations predominate for the cryptoasset market around whether the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, wins. His intention to maintain national reserves in bitcoin and turn the country into a center for the cryptocurrency industry is what motivates such a scenario.
Coinbase, a crypto asset exchange, warns in this regard that although the labor sector data this week could be relevant, the markets’ attention seems to be focused on the elections. Adjudicates This observation is due to the greater demand observed, despite the weak macroeconomic scenario.
With the US elections approaching, “it seems like a lot of capital has already been put to work,” Coinbase highlights. Base this on the drop in cash levels of global fund managers to 3.9% in October, the lowest level since February 2021, according to the latest Bank of America survey.
Furthermore, next week it takes on extra relevance, since the Fed will report its decision for the interest rates. It is expected that a second reduction in these will then be carried out, after lowering them in August for the first time since the pandemic, which boosted liquidity.
With the rate cut in the United States, the main financial power worldwide, bitcoin demand has been strengthening. This is reflected in its price, which has been registering increasingly higher highs and lows in the last two months until approaching 70,000 dollars (USD) in the last week.
Bitcoin price so far this year. Fountain: TradingView.
Given this performance, bitcoin is currently trading at only 5% of the historical record it set seven months ago, as November approaches, a month that could imply the necessary environment for the currency to surpass such a mark.
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