This article was written by Iñaki Apezteguia. Apezteguia is a specialist in cryptocurrencies and fundamental market analysis. He is currently co-founder of Crossing Capitalcarrying out global representation and crypto research for operating strategy. With 7 years of experience in the sector, Iñaki is also editor of Inversor Global, the number 1 financial publication company in Latam.
According to PolymarketAt the time of writing this column, Donald Trump has a 60% chance of being the winner against Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate,’s 40%. Although it is still a survey, it allows project a more positive scenario for cryptocurrencies If Trump wins, given the Bitcoin-estadosunidos/”>support you have been giving to the crypto industry in the USA from the beginning of 2024, wanting to make the United States the crypto capital of the world.
The United States occupies the first place in countries with the largest amount of bitcoins, followed by China. It reached more than 235,000 in 2022 but has been selling progressively. These were obtained mainly through confiscations related to illegal activities, such as the case of Silk Roada black market on the dark web dismantled in 2013. Currently, The United States owns 203,239 bitcoins (according to Arkham Intelligence).
The United States is in the top 10 of main Bitcoin holders. Fountain: MartyParty.
One of Donald Trump’s strongest campaign promises has been, precisely, to give bitcoin the character of strategic value reservespeaking in favor of keeping the bitcoins that the government already has and likewise mine and keep in American hands the bitcoins that remain to be issued. He has expressed himself in interviews in favor of considering bitcoin as a way to solve the enormous problem of debt of more than $35 billion that the United States has This is in line with his support for the senator Lummis on his initiative to buy more than 1 million bitcoins in the next administration.
He also recently made headlines for his public commitment to Bitcoin during a stop at his rally in New York City, where he bought hamburgers at a local store and paid with bitcoins.
Trump’s support is the missing catalyst for the bull market.
This year has been marked by the entry of large institutional funds (BlackRockFidelity, Ark Invest, etc.) through the bitcoin spot ETFwho with their purchases (account approximately USD 20 billion invested in bitcoins to date) have caused the price of the number 1 Cryptocurrency to climb to a new all-time high of USD 73,737 in the first quarter of 2024.
After that episode, there were months of price decline, to the floor of $49,500 in the August 5 due to the crisis in Japan. From there bitcoin began to recover until it found the second great catalyst of the year with it announcement of the FED’s interest rate cut on September 18. It is eagerly awaited that the third catalyst of the year will be Trump’s victory and we are less than 15 days away from the elections.
Bitcoin’s behavior during the elections
Let’s do a brief review of the impact that the United States elections usually generate on the markets, we are going to see that It could also have a positive effect on the crypto marketregardless of Trump’s defeat.
According to Bitcoin Magazinethe correlation that exists between the S&P500 and Bitcoin, has deepened since COVID, which favors the reading of a similar behavior between both markets to be able to project the possible impact on bitcoin.
In each period following the US presidential election, the S&P 500 has generally moved in a positive direction, frequently showing significant gains in the year after an election, with the last election resulting in 18% growth at the end of 2020. and 29% in the following year.
According to what can be seen in the graph below, when there are elections (marked with an orange circle), both the price of Bitcoin (black line) and the S&P 500 (blue line) show a more than significant increasewhich manifests itself over the next 9 to 12 months.
Will the potential bullish momentum from Trump’s victory be enough to push the price of bitcoin to the long-awaited $100,000 before the end of the year? It would be a growth of 45%.
In terms of market impact, if we measure it in the short term, it is very likely that the enthusiasm for his possible victory reflects a growth in the price in previous days and effectively based on the electoral result, the market will correct as part of the sale of the big hands to capitalize on the previous profit. But in the medium and long term, without a doubt Trump’s victory may be the driver we are missing to definitively begin the most bullish phase of this cycle.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of CriptoNoticias. The author’s opinion is for informational purposes and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.
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