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Donald Trump’s victory and ETFs boost Bitcoin, says Gil.
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The predicted price of bitcoin would be for 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC), the largest digital currency on the market, seems to have a marked destiny in the short and medium term, according to the analysis of Spanish trader Pablo Gil.
Based on a study of the halvingskey events in the bitcoin ecosystem that halve Mining rewards every four years, Gil assures that the bullish rally will not stop until well into next year.
His prediction suggests that bitcoin could reach a price target of $140,000 in this bull cycle, a calculation derived from historical trends and current catalysts.
Gil’s analysis focuses on the effects of halvings, which have historically boosted the value of bitcoin. To reach his conclusion, he examined the revaluation rates after each of the above events.
After the first halving, bitcoin experienced a revaluation of 10,100%. After the second halving, the increase was 2,945%, which represents 26% more than the first halving and after the third halving there was an increase of 654%, equivalent to 22% of the previous gain, as can be seen in the next image.
BTC price analysis based on halving. Source: Pablo Gil-YouTube.
Based on this decreasing trend of relative increases, Gil estimates that after this year’s halving it could generate a revaluation of 122% from the moment of the halving, taking the price of bitcoin to $142,000.
“It’s just a rough way to play around with potential targets, given the history around bitcoin halvings previously,” the analyst explained.
Deadlines and expectations
In addition to projecting a target price, Gil calculated the historical times between a halving and price highs. Based on this, determined a range between April and October 2025 as the most likely period to achieve this objective.
According to his analysis, bitcoin still has room for an additional 50% risewhich will be developed in a minimum period of five months and could extend up to ten months from the current date.
Corrections in sight?
Faced with the possibility of a severe correction, Gil is clear: “At the moment, there are no return formations that imply the end of the bullish trend for bitcoin.”
However, he warns about the limitations of analysis based on halvings, since the history of bitcoin is relatively short compared to other assets.
One factor to consider is the FOMO (acronym in English for “fear of being left out of the market”), a phenomenon that tends to intensify as bitcoin rises in price.
According to Gil, although market enthusiasm can drive the price to new highs, It does not guarantee that the trend will be perpetual nor does it rule out possible significant falls in the future.as has happened before.
A data-backed price target
Gil’s analysis is not the only one that points to a high price target for bitcoin. According to data from the CryptoQuant firm, The expected maximum for bitcoin could be $146,000based on the concept of “realized price”.
This indicator measures the weighted average of historical bitcoin transactions and provides a reference to evaluate whether the current price is overvalued or undervalued. In other words, is a weighted average of the price of all bitcoin transactions made to date.
In the following graph you can see the upper and middle bands that serve as references to evaluate whether the current price of bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued in relation to this realized price.
Bitcoin price based on realized price valuation. Source: CryptoQuant.
The fact that bitcoin stays above the realized price band (in blue) for long periods indicates strong investor confidence in its long-term value.
“This price band has historically marked the maximums of the cycle, even in April-May 2021,” they highlighted from CryptoQuant.
Bullish Rally Catalysts
Among the factors that could continue to drive bitcoin, Gil highlights the positive influence of ETFs spot in the United States.
These financial products have attracted large flows of capitalsignificantly favoring the price of bitcoin.
The situation occurs because Spot ETF management companies must buy and hold bitcoin in their treasuries to support their actions.
This acquisition process creates direct and tangible demand in the market. As more investors put money into these funds, the entities that manage the ETFs must acquire more bitcoin to maintain adequate support.
This, in turn, reduces the amount of bitcoin available on the open market, which can lead to an increase in price due to limited supply.
Besides, attributes part of the market’s optimism to Donald Trump’s victory in the recent presidential elections, since the president has promised flexible regulations for crypto assets and the creation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserveas reported by CriptoNoticias.
“These types of announcements generate expectations that, although positive in the short term, must be analyzed with caution in a broader context,” concludes Gil.
Pablo Gil’s analysis offers a promising horizon for bitcoin, with a price target of $140,000 based on historical patterns and recent catalysts. However, His perspective also invites caution, remembering that the Cryptocurrency market is highly volatile.ly susceptible to external factors.
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