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The historical behavior of BTC allows us to identify when the current bullish wave could end.
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Investors should be prepared for a price drop after the euphoria.
Over the past two years, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been on the rise, recently reaching new trading records. The big question with this performance is: when will this bullish wave end and crypto winter begin?
After a sustained bullish trend, there is usually a bearish streak as a result of massive profit taking and decreased demand.
In general, as CriptoNoticias has reported, specialists agree that the peak of the current bull cycle bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will be during 2025. But at what time of year? The answer to this varies depending on the analysis parameters.
According to asset management company VanEck, “the Cryptocurrency bull market will persist through 2025, reaching its first peak in the first quarter.” Then, during the northern hemisphere summer, foresees a decline of approximately 30% for bitcoin and a sharper one, of up to 60%, for altcoins.
“Buy in October and sell in May,” says a popular phrase in the financial world, which is due to market trends. Since summer in the northern hemisphere begins in June, certain economic activities are reduced due to the holiday season. Given this, markets usually fall and recover in the fall that starts in October.
With this in mind, VanEck analysts see a second bullish peak of the year possiblewith major crypto assets regaining momentum and reclaiming all-time highs by the end of 2025. At the peak of the cycle, expect bitcoin to hit around $180,000, Ethereum-eth/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>ether (ETH) at USD 6,000 and solarium (SOL) at USD 500.
The bitcoin bull market usually ends at the end of the year following the halving
VanEck’s forecast resembles that seen in the previous bitcoin bull cycleoccurred in 2021, where it had a peak that ended in April and another that ended in November, interrupted by a setback. In the first it was quoted at USD 63,000 and in the second slightly higher levels up to USD 69,000.
In the bullish cycle of 2013, bitcoin also recorded two bullish waves, with the difference that the second significantly exceeded the first, going from USD 250 to USD 1,200. The market tends to repeat patterns, so it is possible to see a cycle again with two strong rises.
However, it should be taken into account that this was not always the case and, furthermore, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The 2017 bull cycle was formed by a single bull wave, as can be seen in the charts below.
What is similar about the last three bullish cycles is that they always culminated between November and December. Therefore, If this pattern is repeated, bitcoin will have bullish behavior until the end of 2025.
The end of the last three bull cycles has occurred the year after each halvingan event that automatically halves the issuance of bitcoin. The most recent edition, which was the fourth in history, occurred on April 20, 2024, which underlines the possibility that the current upward trend will end in 2025, beginning the crypto winter.
In any case, it should be taken into account that The length of each bitcoin bull cycle has been increasing. If counted from the bottom of the previous crypto winter, the first lasted 24 months, the second 28 and the third 35. And if counted from the halving, the first lasted 11 months, while the following 16 and 17 months respectively.
Duration and performance of each bitcoin bull cycle since previous bear market bottoms. Fountain: TradingView.
This indicates that, If the bullish period continues to lengthen, the current cycle would end after October 2025. By then, it would be 35 months since the previous crypto winter and 17 months since the last halving.
The start of Trump’s term generates optimism for bitcoin
Historically, bitcoin has recorded great returns 1 month, 6 months and one year before the US presidential elections. The last ones occurred on November 5, which suggests an optimistic outlook for bitcoin until October, if this trend shown below continues.
Bitcoin performance after the last presidential elections. Source: Bitcoin and Cryptos.
“Based on this, it is reasonable to expect an increase of around 100% by mid-2025, taking the price to over USD 200,000,” has commented Colombian analyst Juan Rodríguez in this regard.
It should also be noted that Trump’s presidential inauguration has direct implications for the bitcoin marketwhich could favor demand depending on its development.
Trump intends to turn government-seized bitcoin holdings into a strategic reserve asset. Added to this is that it plans to transform the United States into a hub for the cryptocurrency industry and, in addition, there will be the resignation of Gary Gensler, the president of the SEC, a regulator that has hindered the development of the ecosystem.
There is also a proposed law for the United States to buy 1 million units of BTC. This is something that may lead other countries to study the possibility of also investing in the digital currency. Meanwhile, bitcoin purchases by institutions seeking to diversify their portfolio continue to rise.
Asset management company Bitwise predicts the price of bitcoin will reach USD 200,000 by 2025. Although he estimates that if the United States government goes ahead with the proposal to have 1 million units of BTC, Its price will reach USD 500,000 or more.
Market Overheating Will Herald End of Bitcoin Bull Cycle
Ultimately, the peak timing of the current bitcoin cycle will depend on supply and demand. As far as it goes, for now no overheating levels seen like those seen at the end of every bull market. This can be seen in the following analysis model of the investment company Bitcoin Suisse, which identifies cyclical risks.
BTC price cycles measured by its risk level. Source: Bitcoin Switzerland.
While selling pressure has increased from long-term users, it has been largely offset by institutional buying, Bitcoin Suisse highlights. This is reflected in the sustained demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of bitcoin in the United States. Therefore, Until this trend changes, crypto winter will not begin yet..
“Investors should remain alert for signs of overbought conditions as bitcoin approaches its cycle peak,” the Bitfinex exchange has noted. “Metrics such as MVRV, NUPL and the bullish and bearish market cycle indicator indicate that the bullish phase continues, but far from the peaks of euphoria,” he clarifies.
In this sense, it is key to monitor market movements, as well as macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, to identify changes in trends. In this way, it will be possible to perceive when a new crypto winter begins, beyond current projections.
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