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If this were to occur, it would generate upward pressure on the price of the digital currency.
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The US already has 198,000 Bitcoin from seizures.
The arrival of Donald Trump to the White House with a markedly pro-bitcoin policy opens an unprecedented scenario for the digital asset.
During his campaign, the now president-elect promised the creation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserveinspired by the gold and oil reserves that the United States has historically maintained.
Analyst Kennan Mell points out that this proposal could skyrocket the price of bitcoin (BTC) to levels never seen before, reaching $400,000 per unit in the next five years if it is implemented and other countries decide to imitate this policy.
Trump and his team have also floated other ideas to boost the Cryptocurrency industry. Among them stand out:
Fire officials critical of cryptocurrencies, such as the current chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, who already advertisement who will leave his position in January 2025.
The creation of a advisory board pro-cryptocurrencies. This government body would support the development of the industry in the United States.
Finally, the elimination of capital gains taxes on cryptocurrencies issued by US companies, which could further encourage the use and adoption of this type of assets.
«These ideas are very interesting for the cryptocurrency industry in general. However, it is unlikely that any of them will have a large impact on bitcoin,” says Mell.
The logic behind a bitcoin reserve
The United States has a long tradition of maintaining strategic reserves of essential resources. Gold, for example, remains a key part of the country’s financial balancedue to its scarcity and resistance to inflation.
“Having gold as part of a diversified balance sheet protects the nation’s financial position in a variety of economic conditions,” explains the analyst.
In this sense, Trump has proposed creating the bitcoin reserve similar to the current gold reserve. Until now There is only one legislative initiative that addresses this issue. presented by Senator Cynthia Lummis.
The cryptocurrency industry could have comprehensive regulation in the US thanks to Senator Lummis’s proposal (photo). Source: Senator Cynthia Lummis / YouTube.
Lummis, author of the Bitcoin Law presented last July, proposes that the government acquire 1 million bitcoinapproximately 5% of the total supply of 21 million units, and maintain them for at least 20 years.
To finance this purchase, the senator suggested last November, sell part of the country’s gold reservesas reported by CriptoNoticias.
«The creation of this reserve is largely similar to the need to maintain the gold reserve. “To secure the nation’s financial position in a broader range of scenarios, the government should diversify its assets to include some bitcoin.”
Kennan Mell, market analyst.
An existing precedent
Currently, the United States already owns bitcoin. With 198,000 BTC to his credit, he government positions itself as the seventh largest global holder of this assetthanks to confiscations carried out in cases such as Silk Road and Bitfinex.
BTC held by the US government. Source: Arkham Intelligence.
However, these funds have been managed primarily for settlements, not as a formal strategic reserve.
Just two days ago, a cryptocurrency wallet related to the United States registered important movements. According to data from Arkham Intelligence, an address linked to the US government transferred 10,000 BTC to a service of the Coinbase exchange.
These types of moves toward an exchange are often interpreted as a prelude to the sale of digital assets, which could indicate that the United States government is taking steps to liquidate part of its bitcoin holdings.
A clock that runs fast
The logistics of establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve are complex, especially if the price of bitcoin continues to rise during the acquisition period.
Mell suggests that Lummis’ legislative proposal should be updated to allocate a fixed amount of dollars annually to the purchase of BTC, rather than committing to purchasing a fixed amount of the currency.
While the United States deliberates, other countries like BrazilPoland and Russia are already considering establishing their own reserves. Even countries with informal bitcoin reserves, such as China and Bhutan, could take more decisive action.
This competitive environment could increase pressure on the United States to act quickly.
At what price will bitcoin soar?
The creation of a Strategic Reserve in the United States and other countries would almost inevitably lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin. Mell estimates three possible scenarios:
In the short term (2025): The price could range between 140,000 and 200,000 dollars.s, driven by initial optimism.
Medium term (2026-2027): If the reserve takes time to be implemented, there could be a pullback to $70,000due to frustrated expectations.
Long term (2028-2029): With the consolidation of global reserves, bitcoin could reach $400,000, consolidating itself as a strategic asset.
Although the impact of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve depends on many factors, the picture is clear, if global demand increases while supply remains limited, The price of bitcoin only has one way: up.
In Mell’s words, “bitcoin will continue to be a key piece in any diversified investment portfolio, regardless of the speed with which governments act.”
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