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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) plans to keep its interest rates unchanged during the monetary policy meeting on December 18-19. This cautious approach is due to the need to further analyze external risks, wage projections for 2024 and the positive impact that the recent recovery of the yen has had on easing inflationary pressures.
Economic context and international factors
In recent months, Japan has experienced moderate inflation that does not require immediate action. Progressive wage growth and stable economic growth are positioned as important factors for the BOJ, which seeks to ensure a sustained wage-driven rise in inflation.
The decision will also be influenced by the international outlook, especially by the movements of the US Federal Reserve, whose policy meeting takes place just before the BOJ’s. A significant strengthening of the dollar could negatively impact the yen, triggering unexpected corrective measures by Japan to stabilize its economy.
Future decisions and government caution
Despite the lack of consensus within the board of directors, any rate increase is expected to be postponed until January or March, pending more concrete data on wage agreements between companies and unions in the coming year. In addition, the Japanese government supports a slow strategy to avoid jeopardizing the economic recovery that is still developing.
The BOJ, which ended its negative rate policy in March and raised the short-term rate to 0.25% in July, continues to carefully evaluate the data to ensure that any future adjustments are implemented in a controlled manner and without shocks to the economic system. .
Evolution of the interest rate in Japan in recent years.
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