In summary
- Entrepreneur and former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, revealed a 25% success rate in his market predictions, getting only 2 out of 8 forecasts right in the last year.
- Despite its low accuracy, Hayes claims to have been profitable by taking advantage of long-term macroeconomic trends.
- Hayes maintains his “volatility supercycle” thesis, arguing that governments will continue to print money, driving up the value of Bitcoin.
Entrepreneur and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes on Thursday revealed a 25% success rate in his market predictions, getting only 2 of 8 forecasts correct in the last year. But what is surprising, he wrote in his new essay, is that it has remained profitable by taking advantage of long-term macroeconomic trends.
“So batting average = .250. That’s pretty bad for the average man,” Hayes admitted in a blog, using a baseball analogy to describe his prediction accuracy. The Cryptocurrency expert’s self-reported leaderboard covers major market calls from November 2023 to September 2024, spanning predictions on Treasury issuance, banking crises, cryptocurrency price movements, and central bank policies.
While Hayes acknowledges the difficulties inherent in his short-term forecasts, he reaffirms his belief in what he calls the “volatility supercycle thesis,” a theory that underpins his long-term market outlook.
Just last week, Maelstrom Fund, the cryptocurrency investment fund led by Hayes, significantly reduced its holdings in the DeFi Altcoin Pendle (PENDLE).
The fund sold 1.59 million PENDLE tokens for a total of $5.62 million, at an average price of $3.52, in a span of two days. This sale appears to have resulted in a loss of $1.29 million, according to data from Spotonchain.
Hayes, who is known for writing about market volatility and central bank policies, said he stands by his main thesis: Governments will continue to print money to suppress volatility, inevitably boosting the value of Bitcoin.
Despite his errors, including an incorrect forecast on the impact of the expiration of the Bank’s Term Financing Program in March 2024, Hayes argues that short-term forecasts matter less than being positioned for inevitable monetary expansion.
“The fiat needed to keep volatility at low levels will find its way into cryptocurrencies,” he argued, reiterating his commitment to Bitcoin (BTC) as the best protection against traditional financial systems.
Hayes predicts that in the future, major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China, will continue to ease monetary conditions. He advises cryptocurrency investors to “sit back, relax, and watch the fiat value of your portfolio rise.”
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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