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In summary
- The derivatives market projected a 6% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $150,000 before January 31.
- Bitcoin rebounded after falling to $92,000 after surpassing $100,000, remaining at $99,260 according to CoinGecko.
- Trump announced plans for a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US, attracting investors after his election victory.
The derivatives market signals a small chance of additional bullish momentum for Bitcoin next month, following the asset’s historic rise above $100,000 last week. This is according to Sean Dawson, research director of the derivatives protocol DeFi Derive.
“We continue to see a 10.5% chance of Ethereum reaching $6,000 and a 6% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $150,000 by January 31,” Dawson told Decrypt.
“As for delta 25 biases, they have remained stable since last week, showing no significant changes,” Dawson added. “It seems that the market has consolidated its position over the weekend.”
The 25 delta skew measures the market bias between calls and puts, and its stability suggests that traders’ expectations about price direction or risk have not changed significantly.
This follows Bitcoin’s rise above $100,000 on Wednesday and the significant volatility that followed 12 hours later, when the asset fell to an eight-day low of $92,000.
Bitcoin price has regained ground since then, holding steady on the day at $99,260, according to data from CoinGecko.
“The weekend generally results in calmer markets and moderate price movements,” Dawson explained.
Pointing to factors like MicroStrategy flows and BlackRock IBIT options that have a disproportionate impact on the price of Bitcoin, Dawson said the weekend’s trading “tends to reduce volatility,” giving the market a “chance to stabilize.” .
Bitcoin has regained the imagination of retail and institutional investors after President-elect Donald Trump won a decisive victory in the 2024 election, held last month.
Trump has promised to implement a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US while protecting the interests of domestic Cryptocurrency Mining companies and those that offer services related to the industry.
Meanwhile, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows from major issuers, including BlackRock and Fidelity, continue to post impressive records, with the former becoming the world’s fastest fund to reach $50 billion in assets under management.
“With the market in uncharted territory, we are now in a new zone of price discovery,” Singapore-based QCP Capital wrote in a note on Wednesday. “We have returned to a binary scenario, where the spot price could be driven higher, or selling pressure could push it below $100,000.”
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