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In summary
- Bitcoin price is experiencing a cautious start to October, coinciding with China’s Golden Week.
- Analysts predict a slow market this week and warn of a possible 5-10% correction for Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin price is currently hovering around $63,980, down 0.6% in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum is trading slightly higher by 0.5% at $2,643.
Bitcoin price is experiencing a cautious start to October, as China’s Golden Week holiday begins on October 1.
This annual seven-day celebration, which marks China’s National Day and spans across various cultural festivities, often results in lower trading activity in global markets, including cryptocurrencies, as Chinese traders and businesses take a break
Analysts predict a sluggish market this week and warn that Bitcoin could see a 5-10% correction before any significant upward move can resume.
Bitcoin price is currently hovering around $63,980, down 0.6% in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum is trading slightly higher by 0.5% at $2,643, according to data from CoinGecko.
The market’s subdued performance comes amid a number of crucial macroeconomic events scheduled for the week, including the US vice presidential debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance on October 1, the US initial jobless claims report .
Overnight trading in the Cryptocurrency market has shown signs of increased volatility.
In a note sent to Decrypt, Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute, explained that “IV prints higher led by short-term contracts – pushing VRP to 13/14pts on majors.” In simpler terms, the implied volatility (IV) for short-term options contracts is increasing, which has created a volatility risk premium (VRP) in the market, suggesting that traders expect strong price swings ahead. short term.
Ostrovskis noted that last Friday’s $5 billion options expiration (OPEX) could lead to more intense market fluctuations.
“We are seeing some of this flow overnight as we approach the end of the month,” Ostrovskis added, pointing to the changing dynamics in both Bitcoin and Ethereum trading.
He highlighted that Bitcoin spot trading fell below the $65,000 mark, with the volatility surface indicating a downward bias until late October or early November. However, Ostrovskys noted that “the current position suggests support for a post-election rally.”
Bitfinex analysts warn that Bitcoin’s recent gains could be peaking in the near term.
“Bitcoin has recovered key on-chain levels such as the Short-Term Holder Realized Price ($62,750) but there are warning signs,” they said in a note sent to Decrypt. Buying in the spot market has stalled recently, the analysts added, suggesting the market may have reached a temporary equilibrium.
Additionally, open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures has risen above $35 billion, a level that has historically correlated with local price spikes. Although this could indicate an overheating of the market, Bitfinex analysts believe that a modest 5-10% correction could reset the OI without derailing the overall uptrend.
Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, echoes these sentiments, noting that Bitcoin ended September with a 3.5% loss.
“The Stochastic RSI continues to signal bullish potential, but the MACD indicates weakened momentum,” Fournier stated. He added that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken out of overbought territory, signaling a potential correction. It suggests that a drop into the $61,000-$62,500 range could serve as a solid foundation for a new uptrend.
“The US unemployment rate will be a crucial market-moving event,” Fournier said. Any deviation from the expected rate of 4.2% could impact market sentiment and influence risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, he added.
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