Never before in the history of Bitcoin (BTC) has a presidential election had so much importance for its price.
The growth of the ecosystem of cryptocurrencies has made it so that now, when Donald Trump (Republican) and Kamala Harris (Democrat) face each other to reach the White House, bitcoin be one of the issues that can help define the electoral contest.
As CriptoNoticias has reported, depending on who the winner of these elections is, the price of bitcoin could react up or down.
In general, investors seem to want a Trump victory (who has actively sought to present himself as the pro-bitcoin candidate)
With exactly one week left until the elections, Trump positions himself as the favorite candidateaccording to the betting house Polymarket.
In the words of Grayscalea digital asset investment firm, this platform has the potential to be a “source of truth.”
Says the Grayscale research team:
“Polymarket has the potential to be a ‘source of truth’ by leveraging transparency and movement history maintenance on the Blockchain, marketplace incentives, and the collective intelligence of its users.”
Grayscale research team.
At the time of this publication, according to Polymarket, 66% of the money (more than 834 million dollars) is bet on a Trump victory. For its part, Harris it only attracts 33% (more than 530 million dollars).
The following image shows how market expectation on Polymarket has varied over time:
Trump or Harris? Polymarket allows you to vote who could be the winner. Source: Polymarket – Screenshot by CriptoNoticias.
Anticipating the triumph of Trump, who promises to establish a Bitcoin National Reserve and make the United States a prominent leader in the Cryptocurrency Mining industry, the market has decided to “buy the rumor.” This is anticipating an event that may occur, and that would be favorable for BTC.
By simple law of supply and demand, this purchase causes the BTC price to go up, as can be seen in the image below, which shows the digital currency price in the last 7 days.
Bitcoin (BTC) price during the last week. Source: TradingView.
So, bitcoin is positioned just over $3,000 from setting a new all-time high.
In this scenario, the bitcoin ETF The spot prices traded on US stock exchanges have played a fundamental role. The thing is that these products, due to their operation, imply that bitcoin purchases and sales are carried out to support investment funds. Therefore, when there is high demand for ETFs, they boost the price of the digital currency.
As can be seen in the following image, provided by the company SoSoValue, the Bitcoin ETFs have had 4 straight days of positive capital flowsimpacting the price of BTC:
Capital flows to and from bitcoin ETFs, day by day. Source: SosoValue.
The rest of the week could be highly volatile
It is true that bitcoin is going up and approaching all-time highs. But this does not mean that it cannot have falls, oscillating movements and high volatility.
In fact, CriptoNoticias reported yesterday, October 28, that there are several macroeconomic data that will be known this week and could impact the price of BTC.
Employment, unemployment and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) figures They will be able to influence the decisions of investors.
In addition, any news related to the election campaign in the United States or the candidates could also shake the price of bitcoin or shoot it to new heights.
In the long term, the bullish expectation for bitcoin continues
Beyond the volatility that bitcoin may have, there are expectations that the upward trend will continue.
The words of Matthew Sigelhead of research at the financial company VanEck, express the sentiment of many bitcoiners and investors.
The executive thinks that bitcoin will end up being adopted as a reserve asset worldwide and that even central banks—as a rule and not an exception—will accumulate BTC.
“Bitcoin will become a reserve asset used in global trade and central banks around the world will have a 2% allocation in it.”
Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck.
According to the VanEck pricing model, This will cause bitcoin to have an average appreciation of 16% annually for a couple of decadesleading it to be valued at close to 3 million dollars in the year 2050.
Like Sigel, many analysts have developed various price models and, in most of them, long-term expectations for bitcoin are bullish.
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