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“Bitcoin is an attractive asset for long-term investment,” the paper highlights.
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The analysis was done by analysts from the NGO Satoshi Action Education.
An academic paper published on December 16, 2024 warns that the price of bitcoin (BTC) could rise to 1 million dollars (USD) in three or four years. The authors of the document are analysts Murray A. Rudd and Dennis Porter of the nonprofit organization Satoshi Action Education.
The study is based on basic economic principlesanalyzing the maximum supply of bitcoinwhich is 21 million units, with demand drivers. The latter includes institutional adoption, the accumulation of strategic reserves and the supply shock (low quantity for sale) by hodling.
In a scenario that investigation Considered “conservative”, he maintains that bitcoin could reach prices above USD 1 million as of October 2028. He establishes this forecast for early autumn in the northern hemisphere. This season, which starts in the aforementioned month, is famous for being bullish for the markets.
However, in an optimistic scenario, driven by the growing institutional adoption of bitcoin, the academic paper indicates that this goal can be achieved sooner. In this case, it indicates that bitcoin could surpass the price of USD 1 million by January 2027.
“Higher levels are possible sooner if institutional adoption accelerates and the liquid supply of bitcoin depletes quickly, which could imply a hyperbolic acceleration of prices,” the paper details the projected scenarios, as seen below.
Possible scenarios for the price of bitcoin, according to Satoshi Action Education analysts. Source: Papers SSRN.
Recent factors support the optimistic scenario. Among them, the recent inclusion of MicroStrategy, a company listed with the most BTC, in the Nasdaq 100 index stands out. This indicates that it will unleash USD 3.1 billion in new capital flows to its shares, opening possibilities for the company to aggressively acquire more bitcoin.
Added to this, numerous US states are drafting bills to have strategic reserves of bitcoin. It is also added that the administration of President-elect Donald Trump has indicated its support for a federal strategic reserve in this asset. Additionally, there is growing international interest in investing in this currency.
With this context, he notes that current market conditions suggest that a wave of institutional and bitcoin adoption is forming for 2025 and beyond. This implies stronger demand with less supply pressure than their price forecasts argue.
“A hyperbolic increase in the price of bitcoin is possible,” he says
According to the academic study, its price forecasts based on supply and demand models can offer investors, fund managers and governments more valuable information for portfolio allocation than those focused on historical price trends.
“With sufficient withdrawals from the fixed supply towards strategic reserves, a hyperbolic increase in the price of bitcoin could be a possibility,” he emphasizes. That is why this research shows the importance of having currency exposure in a portfolio of investmentfacing the bullish potential.
“A key result of this document highlights the urgent need for individuals, companies and governments to consider bitcoin investments and portfolio allocations,” the paper concludes.
In tune, Cathie Wood, the CEO of the asset management company ARK Invest, stated at the beginning of the year that her projection that bitcoin will be worth USD 1 million by 2030 “has been brought forward.” By then, due to possible institutional demand, he expects the price to be “well above” that figure.
Meanwhile, for the nearest future towards 2025, specialists such as analyst Willy Woo have expressed bullish expectations due to the increasing purchasing power and the supply shock. This occurs, as CriptoNoticias already reported, while bitcoin has exceeded $100,000 in December.
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