Key facts:
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September has historically been a bearish month for the price of Bitcoin.
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The Fed has a rate meeting on September 18.
If September turns out to be a bearish month for Bitcoin (BTC) as it has historically been before a rally, it could represent buying opportunities. Furthermore, there are expectations that this period will not be all down for the digital currency.
“Not all of September will be bearish,” points out Colombian analyst Juan Rodriguez based on his projections on his YouTube channel. According to his vision, bitcoin could see lower prices in the first part of the month enabling “the best opportunities” and moving up in the second.
Juan Rodriguez is recognized for his market analysis. Source: Bitcoin and Cryptos.
Its projection is based on the FOMC meeting scheduled for September 18, which will define monetary policy in the United States. The organization is expected to establish a cut in interest rates interest rateswhich, according to the analyst, may have been discounted by the market, but is bullish in the medium term.
Because rate cuts lower Treasury bond yields, this policy encourages capital to rotate out of such instruments into the markets. That is why assets considered “risky” such as stocks and bonds are typically at a higher risk. bitcoin tend to rise in periods of monetary easing.
Rodriguez also emphasizes that, according to the lower volume of bitcoin trading on exchanges, Investors are showing apathyThis behavior is normal for this period of the year, while it tends to improve towards the end of the year, as seen below.
Trading volume behavior on exchanges. Source: Juan Rodríguez.
Bitcoin Has 400 Days of Bull Market Left, According to History
In September, the northern hemisphere’s summer ends, a season in which markets tend to fall, something that bitcoin has not been exempt from. In fact, this month is the one in which the currency has closed lower for the most years. However, its largest drop in this period has been 18%, which is not significant for the asset, as shown in the following graph.
Bitcoin performance during Septembers over the past 10 years. Source: Juan Rodriguez.
In the event that a correction of such a percentage is repeated, Bitcoin could fall to around $48,000 (USD). This level is close to the low seen on Black Monday a month ago (USD 49,000) of the corrective sideways range that has been in place for six months.
However, if it registers an average correction of those seen in the Septembers of the last 10 years, this would be 7%. Such a movement would take its price to the USD 54,000 zone. A correction of such proportion implies, for Rodriguez, buying opportunities in view of its upside potential in the medium term.
It is argued that, on average, A Bitcoin bull market lasts 796 daysaccording to its historical data. Although, in fact, the last two have lasted just over 1,000 days. And the current one has been around for 630 days, considering its price performance since its recovery from the bear market at the end of 2022.
Based on its performance over the past two years, Bitcoin still has about 400 days left in the bull market. Meanwhile, it is currently trading 20% below the all-time high it reached six months ago, a moment since which it has continued to trend sideways.
Rodriguez highlights that, if the exchange-traded funds (ETF) continue with capital outflows like last week, it will help bitcoin have a correction in the first part of September.
Although, according to specialists such as Coinbase, Demand for ETFs could be reactivated Because traders often return from vacation following Labor Day in the United States, a holiday that occurred on September 2. Therefore, monitoring the movements of these instruments can give signals of how the market will continue.
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