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The recent post in X, by Steve Jurvetson, about the update of Moore’s Law has sparked a deep debate about the exponential impact of this technological trend on our lives.
In a semi-logarithmic graph spanning over 128 years, Jurvetson illustrates how human computing power has improved by a staggering 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000x relative to cost. This impressive progress, considered by some to be “the most important graph ever conceived,” continues to shape innovation and global economic growth.
The Moore’s Law Update
NOTE: this is a semi-log graph, so a straight line is an exponential; each y-axis tick is 100x. This graph covers a 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000x improvement in computation/$. Pause to let that sink in.
Humanity’s capacity to compute has compounded for… pic.twitter.com/oo7dGgVUhh
— Steve Jurvetson (@FutureJurvetson) December 2, 2024
Technological transitions in Moore’s Law
The post details how Moore’s Law has evolved across different integrated circuit architectures, starting with CPUs, then GPUs (graphics processors), and now ASICs (specific integrated circuits). For example:
- From GPUs to ASICs: GPUs revolutionized deep learning in 2014, thanks to their parallel architecture similar to the human sensory cortex. Now, ASICs designed specifically for neural networks mark the next big leap.
- Future innovations: Analog in-memory computing, which further mimics the human cortex, could be the next frontier.
Impact on the economy and society
Moore’s Law is not only a technological principle, but also an economic driver. It has transformed industries such as biotechnology, automotive and space exploration. From Tesla and SpaceX to agriculture, technological progress is turning all industries into information-based businesses.
For example, in 20 years, farmers will compete more for the use of advanced information, such as satellite imagery and robotic optimization, than for traditional agricultural techniques. This change is already percolating in sectors such as health, where computer simulation replaces laboratory experiments, accelerating advances in diagnostics and drug discovery.
An exponential future
The analysis highlights that Moore’s Law is not limited to predicting transistor densities. It represents a disruptive force that drives the global economy and entrepreneurship. Without this evolution, entrepreneurs would miss the opportunity to capitalize on non-linear market changes that create new industries and transform existing ones.
With advances expected in technologies such as the Nvidia Hopper architecture and smaller chip manufacturing processes, Moore’s Law promises to continue guiding development for at least two more decades.
Conclusion
Moore’s Law is much more than a technical observation; It is the basis of exponential progress. Its impact extends to all aspects of the economy and society, charting a path toward a future where technology redefines the way we live, work and compete.
Are we ready to face this accelerated pace of innovation? The answer lies in our ability to adapt and take advantage of these transformations for the greater good..
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