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China’s economy is set for a challenging year in 2025, with Donald Trump’s second administration promising to implement tougher tariffs on Chinese goods. In this context, the governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), Pan Gongsheng, reaffirmed the commitment to maintain an accommodative monetary policy to boost economic growth.
Strategies for a complex panorama
At a financial forum held in Beijing, Pan stressed that monetary policy will be key to counteract external risks and revitalize the domestic economy. Among the measures announced, the PBOC plans:
- Countercyclical adjustments: Initiatives to counteract the economic slowdown.
- Expand liquidity: Ensure the availability of capital in the financial system.
- Reduce financing costs: Facilitate access to credit for companies and residents.
The yuan has hit its lowest level in a year against the US dollar, reflecting the impact of economic uncertainties and tariff threats.
Changes in M1 measurement
A notable announcement was the review of the definition of the M1 money supply, a key indicator of business activity and purchasing power. It will now include:
- Individual demand deposits.
- Funds stored on digital platforms such as Alipay and WeChat.
This update, which aligns China with international practices, seeks to more accurately reflect economic dynamism. According to estimates, this change would reduce the reported contraction of M1 from 6.1% to 2.3%.
Recent measures and perspectives
Since September, China has implemented significant cuts to interest rates and the bank reserve ratio (RRR), with further adjustments planned for the coming months. These actions seek to relieve pressure on a weakened labor and export market.
With adaptive monetary policy and an update in economic measurement, the PBOC aims to strengthen the economy in the face of growing trade tensions and foster financial stability in an uncertain global scenario.
Conclusion
China shows determination to meet the challenges of 2025 with a robust monetary strategy and reforms aligned with global dynamics. These actions will be crucial to mitigate the impact of potential US tariffs and maintain economic resilience.
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