In summary
- Netflix paid $60 million to live stream the fight between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson on Nov. 15, without it being a pay-per-view event.
- BoxingGPT predicts that Tyson has the advantage in the early rounds, but Paul could win if the fight goes extended.
- The betting odds favor Paul, but most experts aren’t ruling out Tyson because of his experience.
Netflix is reportedly paying at least $60 million to make history with its first live, non-pay-per-view sports broadcast. The streaming giant’s foray into live programming will pit YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul, 27, against Mike Tyson, 58, on Nov. 15 at AT&T Stadium that is already drawing intense scrutiny from the streaming markets. sports prediction and analysts.
“I’m here to win $40 million and knock out a legend,” Jake Paul told interviewers.
“This fight is not going to change my lifestyle financially,” Tyson said. “I feel like I can beat this guy.”
Some experts say Paul will take most of the money, although others say it will be a 50/50 split.
Either way, there are a lot of stakes at play, and as another public service to the degen community, we wanted to see what the AI could tell us about this particular instance of the sweet science. So we built a GPT, basically a custom AI agent powered by OpenAI’s GPT-4o, to filter out speculation and offer data-driven fight predictions, continuing our exploration of artificial intelligence in sports prediction.
After a satisfying analysis of the Kentucky Derby with HorseGPT and a baseball expert who correctly predicted the Dodgers’ World Series victory, we turn our attention to the most talked-about matchup in boxing.
We call it BoxingGPT, with which you can practice on your own, or continue reading.
Our combat sports AI system has analyzed decades of boxing data, including historical fight results, performance metrics and detailed technical analysis of fighting styles; Well, at least decades of Tyson fights, because “El Gallo de Dorado” is relatively new to this and is half Iron Mike’s age.
We loaded the model with research papers on the impact of age in heavyweight boxing, striking statistics from Paul’s previous fights, and Tyson’s complete career data. The process mirrors our successful approach with HorseGPT, except it analyzed humans instead of horses.
After processing all this data, our AI made a decision: Incredibly, Tyson has a slight advantage over Paul, but the odds will ultimately depend on the length of the fight. Our bot sees Tyson as a sprinter, while Paul looks more like a marathon runner.
In other words, a short fight will work in Tyson’s favor, but once he gets tired, he’ll be done for.
Our bot’s response: “In a hypothetical matchup, Tyson’s raw power and aggressive style make him the favorite. Their path to victory depends on landing early and putting pressure on Paul, who would need to play a disciplined and defensive game to survive. Young Paul has a chance if he can weather the early rounds and take advantage of Tyson’s age-related decline in the later rounds, but Tyson’s extensive skill set and experience make him a formidable challenge.”
This flies in the face of all conventional wisdom (including CBS Sports and FanDuel Sportsbook) that favors Paul to win with odds ranging from -215 to -310, meaning bettors would have to wager between $215 and $310 to win $100. . Polymarket bettors also see Paul as the likely winner.
That’s the short version. If you are interested in the details, read on.
When AI and humans think differently
BoxingGPT breaks down the fight into different phases:
Initial Rounds (1-3): Tyson would probably come out aggressively, looking to get inside Paul’s range and land powerful combinations to the head and body. Paul could try to keep Tyson at range with jabs and straight rights, but Tyson’s head movement and constant forward pressure could make this difficult. Paul’s best strategy would be to stay calm, stay at a distance, and avoid early exchanges where Tyson could dominate.
Middle rounds (4-6): If the fight extends to the middle rounds, then Tyson’s stamina could begin to be tested. This could open up opportunities for Paul if he has managed to stay relatively unscathed. Paul’s fitness advantage would allow him to control the pace more effectively if Tyson starts to tire. Tyson would likely adjust his performance to conserve energy, choosing moments to get close.
Final rounds (7-8): If the fight extends to the final rounds, then Paul would have an advantage in terms of stamina and size. At this point, he could start landing more punches if Tyson’s defense and head movement start to slow down. Paul could win rounds simply by staying active and controlling the distance if he can avoid Tyson’s powerful counterattacks.
Our predictions do not seem to be aligned with the analyzes shared by other more experienced experts, who place Jake Paul as the favorite, mainly due to the 30-year difference between the two boxers.
Polymarket shows Paul as a 62% favorite, while Mike Tyson has less than a 30% chance of prevailing. Our model suggests that these probabilities may be overvaluing youth and undervaluing Tyson’s experience, particularly his 88% career knockout rate, which remains atypical even on adjusted aging curves.
Martialbot, another platform specializing in boxing, takes an even stronger stance, giving Paul a 99% chance of victory. “This should be a sure win for Jake Paul with 99-1 odds to win. Mike Tyson really doesn’t have much to present against Paul,” the site argues.
That said, Martialbot’s analysis said the same thing about Jake Paul’s fight against Tommy Fury in 2023, and it ended up completely wrong. The site also gave Clifford Etienne an 84% chance of victory against Tyson, and the fight ended in the first round with Tyson knocking out Etienne in the first round.
In other words, the Tyson vs. Paul seems to be quite similar to his match against Etienne in terms of expectations vs. strategy, so you better be quick, Mike.
DraftKings SportsBook betting odds favor Paul as the -210 favorite, while Tyson is the underdog at +170. Basically, to win $100, you need to bet $210 on Paul or $58.82 on Tyson. Tyson is +250 to win by knockout, meaning a $100 bet would return $250 if he wins by knockout, while Paul is +140 to finish the fight, returning $140 on a $100 bet if he stops Tyson.
But there is one thing our AI and the betting markets agree on: the fight is expected to be quick and unlikely to go to the final bell, with odds of -130 for an outcome of less than 6.5 rounds. Paul is more likely to win by KO or TKO at +125, while a decision win for him is less favored at +320. For Tyson, the most likely path to victory is also by KO at +260, with long odds of +1100 for a decision win, reflecting his age and physical condition.
Round score favors Paul’s chances in the middle rounds, while Tyson has his best chance early, with his KO victory odds reaching up to +6500 in the eighth round, meaning a $100 bet on Tyson winning In the eighth round he would return $6,500. A draw is an unlikely outcome, at +800, so a $100 bet would return $800 if the fight ends in a draw.
Whether our BoxingGPT joins the success of HorseGPT or follows in Martialbot’s footsteps with failed predictions remains to be seen. Until then, our AI suggests keeping a close eye on those first three rounds, as they could be worth more than all the prediction markets combined.
Edited by Andrew Hayward
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