At the Polymarket betting house, more than 70% of users anticipate a 25 basis point cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its next meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2024.
As it is appreciate On the platform, the bet on how much the interest rate cut will be has a volume of 10.9 million dollars. This denotes a significant interest in the next monetary policy decision.
Overall, 78% of respondents anticipate a 25 basis point cut in the Bitcoin-inflacion-bancos-centrales-criptomonedas-prestamos/” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>interest rate federal. This scenario is seen as the most likely, indicating a monetary policy that seeks to gradually adjust financing conditions in response to current economic dynamics.
20% of bets are on a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. This outlook suggests a more urgent need for action by the Fed, possibly due to economic indicators that may require a more forceful response to stabilize the economy.
Only 4% of bets suggest the Fed might choose to keep rates unchanged, reflecting a minority that sees the economic situation as stable or anticipates a change in Fed policy that has not been picked up by the majority of the market.
Most Polymarket users believe in a 25-point interest rate cut. Source: Polymarket.
These bets not only reflect the pulse of the financial market but also expectations about the direction the US economy will take in the short term, considering factors such as inflation, employment and economic growth.
The expectation of a cut in interest rates not only affects traditional markets, but also has implications for digital assets such as bitcoin. Historically, looser monetary policies tend to favor assets considered “risky”including the cryptocurrencies.
A 25 basis point cut could inject liquidity into the system, potentially driving up the price of BTC due to the search for higher returns than those offered by Treasury bonds and the diversification of portfolios towards assets not correlated with traditional markets.
Bitcoin price as of January 1, 2024. Source: TradingView.
According to a report by CriptoNoticias, the Fed’s decision to cut rates is influenced by multiple factors, including inflationary pressure and the state of the labor market.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has previously expressed The importance of a careful approach to monetary policywhich could be interpreted as a predisposition towards gradual adjustments in rates to avoid destabilizing the economy.
This article was created using artificial intelligence and edited by a human on the editorial staff.
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