In summary
- Polymarket’s total open interest hit a record $463 million on Election Day.
- More than $249 million was at stake in the US presidential election as of Tuesday.
- Polymarket experienced significant growth in trading volume during the 2024 presidential race.
With American voters heading to the polls on Tuesday, a rush of betting in the twilight of the 2024 presidential race drove Polymarket’s total open interest to a record $463 million on Election Day.
Representing the total value of positions held on the decentralized Blockchain-based prediction platform, the measure had risen 40% over the past week, from $329 million, according to data from Dune. Meanwhile, much of the platform’s activity had focused on the impending US election between former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.
More than $249 million was actively at stake in the US presidential election as of Tuesday, increasing 50% from $163 million last week. Whether Trump’s 62% odds of victory would prove accurate, however, was a question that remained up in the air, with millions of votes still to be cast and counted.
Polymarket and other prediction platforms have exploded in popularity this year thanks to the US election. Although Polymarket launched in 2020, Tuesday might be remembered as one of its most defining moments, as statisticians like Polymarket Advisor, Nate Silver, have described the result as a coin toss.
At its core, Polymarket has been portrayed as a new format for evaluating current events by its 26-year-old founder and CEO, Shayne Coplan. Building a product on the Cryptocurrency lanes that has become a growing part of the US political dialogue, he wrote on Twitter on Monday that Polymarket’s presence is “undoubtedly permanent,” while highlighting its growing ranking in the App Store from Apple.
Some may be glued to the Polymarket app as a political meter in the future, but open interest could be another story. During the 2020 US presidential election, Polymarket’s open interest continued to rise until Joe Biden was inaugurated, and then plummeted to $15 million from $33 million, according to Dune.
Polymarket has experienced just four days of net outflows in the past two months, growing even more strongly when traders withdrew $30 million from the platform in mid-October, according to DefiLlama. Apart from that, inflows have been consistent as bettors flock to the platform.
As the 2024 race entered its most crucial phase, Polymarket recorded its best day in terms of trading volume. So far, the platform has recorded nearly $174 million in trading volume on Tuesday, according to data from Dune, compared to the previous peak of $161 million recorded on Monday.
Edited by Andrew Hayward
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