Next Tuesday (September 10) the first debate between the presidential candidates of the United States, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, will take place. This is a decisive moment just a few weeks before the elections in the North American country. In this work we analyze the possible scenarios for Bitcoin after the meeting.
Based on what we have seen so far, the Republican candidate, Trump, has a significant advantage in terms of rhetoric. However, Harris is much younger than her rival and her arguments could be sharp enough to put the tycoon in a difficult position. As can be seen, the face-to-face could be one of the biggest events in years for the financial markets.
Possible scenarios for Bitcoin after the candidates’ debate
As usual, speculation about the outcome of the debate is rife, and the repercussions of each scenario could be significant. In the case of Bitcoin, there is a curious variety of outcomes that could result from this meeting between Trump and Harris. Below, we present some possible effects of the debate on BTC and the rest of the cryptocurrencies.
Before reviewing these events, it is worth highlighting that the proposals of both candidates are not only different, but many are irreconcilable. While Trump focuses his promises on big financiers and businessmen, Harris addresses the middle and working class. From this, the resulting policies in social, immigration and economic areas are marked.
Although the above is the epicenter of the debate, the personal issue also presents itself as a very important element. At this point, moral and politically correct behavior plays very much against Trump. With this context, we will review the three main scenarios.
First scenario: Kamala corners Trump
The first of the possible scenarios that could affect Bitcoin is derived from the age of the opponents. The latter considering the fact that cognitive abilities derived from age are essential in a debate. This is a favorable context for Harris (59 years old) against Trump (78 years old). Thus, if the Democratic candidate is sufficiently sharp, she could corner the Republican.
With a left-wing populist discourse, she could win absolute favoritism in key sectors. Among these, feminist groups, environmentalists, Latinos, Afro-descendants and a good part of the middle class, which has been hit hard by the post-pandemic crisis, stand out. If we add to this the quick jabs at Trump’s personal morality, the environment would be set for a solid victory for Kamala.
The consequences of this on the crypto market would be largely negative. Kamala leading Trump means her chances of getting elected increase. Consequently, the SEC’s current policies and its war on cryptocurrencies would continue for several more years.
Second scenario: Kamala surprises
The second act could be a surprise from Kamala Harris regarding cryptocurrencies. So far, the Democratic campaign on this sector has been completely silent. However, if the reset of relations between the party and cryptocurrencies is successful, the situation could change.
With a regulatory agenda and an improved crypto environment, Harris could challenge Trump for the crypto vote. If this is the case, the stage could be set for a possible Bitcoin rally, regardless of who wins the debate.
Third scenario: Trump consolidates his advantage
A third act determines a new positive trend for Bitcoin, since it would be a consolidation of Trump and his proposal. At this point, the tycoon demonstrates the convenience of his campaign proposals.
For example, he emphasizes ending US proxy wars like the one in Ukraine. Trump has repeatedly stressed the need to save lives through peace and understanding with other world leaders. In this regard, he claims that he is not afraid to talk face to face with Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping to rescue world peace and stop the bloodshed in different parts of the world.
In the case of the war in Ukraine, he says it must be ended to avoid a third world war. As things stand, the conditions are leading to an inevitable nuclear war with Russia that could lead to an apocalyptic scenario. Thus, according to Trump, stopping a third world war would allow the survival of civilization and, at the same time, reduce the public debt that threatens future generations.
These points could be crucial for Trump’s victory in the debate. Thus, the possible scenarios for Bitcoin are mostly positive. There are other scenarios such as a tie, which would not bring major changes for BTC.
Trump leads Harris in the betting. Source: Polymarket
Trump and Harris at Polymarket
With all these elements on the table, it can be said that this debate is one of the most anticipated in recent decades. So far, Trump’s vision seems to be the winner thanks to his focus on rescuing the economy and world peace to stop indebtedness and nuclear war with Russia.
On Polymarket, the Republican tycoon appears to be regaining some of the lead he lost a few weeks ago. According to data from that portal, bets favor Trump by 52% compared to Harris’s 46%.
From CriptoTendencia we will provide live coverage of the debate, which you can follow from our WhatsApp channel.
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