Key facts:
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The analysis of historical patterns allows us to anticipate future movements.
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According to a technical analyst, $100,000 will be a target price for Bitcoin in this cycle.
While Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a corrective sideways range since the record price reached six months ago, various historical data suggests a rebound is imminent.
“Bitcoin bull run in 2024 expects a 6-week window,” holds the analysis and trading group known as Made Easy Finance. According to their perspective, in that period, Two events should occur that would propel the currency to new all-time high prices in the two previous cycles.
The first event is a waiting period of between 5 and 6 months from the halvingwhich is the halving of bitcoin issuance that occurs every four years. Bitcoin has typically taken that long to recover its peak prices from the previous cycle. It then typically spends another 6 months trying to reach new all-time highs.
Although the current cycle is different, given that bitcoin It reached a new all-time high a month before the halving in April, then it has continued to consolidate below it, as seen below. Therefore, for the analyst group, the pattern seen in previous cycles is still valid and could be repeated.
Bitcoin price in recent months. Source: TradingView.
September 27 marks 5 months since the last halvingwhile October 17 is 6 months. Therefore, if bitcoin follows its historical trend, demand could be reactivated around those dates, causing its price to rise.
As CriptoNoticias reported, this matches with the expected cut this month of interest rates in the United States, a policy that motivates risk demand, and the beginning of autumn in the northern hemisphere. This season tends to be positive for BTC, since markets usually rise during this time due to the reactivation of economic activities after the holidays.
“During this period, we should see bitcoin forming bullish technical signals across the chart,” says Made Easy Finance. Among the possible indicators to watch, His gaze focuses on Coppock’s curvewhich is considered the second event that must occur in the next 6 weeks.
The Coppock Curve is a momentum indicator developed by analyst Edwin Coppock in the early 1960s. It is primarily used to identify bullish reversals of an asset by measuring its 10-period (usually monthly) weighted moving average over two time periods.
When the Coppock curve changes from negative to positive values, a bullish reversal signal is interpreted. The analyst group emphasizes that, in the stock market, it managed to successfully provide this signal after major crises such as those of 2008, 2016 and 2020. Likewise, it has also done so with bitcoin, as shown below.
Coppock Curve Analysis on Bitcoin Price. Source: Seeking Alpha.
“If bitcoin recovers to $70,000 before October 17 and the Coppock curve signals the bullish signal, we will take a bullish bias in our bitcoin-related trades,” Made Easy Finance warns. Currently, the coin is hovering around $58,000
The group clarifies, however, that sometimes the Coppock curve indicates false trends, as do other trend-following indicators. Therefore, it stresses that it is essential to analyze it in conjunction with other aspects to predict price continuity.
“No indicator is perfect and indicators must be used in the right context for them to work. Context is the key word.”
Made Easy Finance, a group providing analysis and trading strategies.
Bitcoin could hit $100,000 in this cycle, according to projections
Beyond short-term considerations, the analyst group sees bullish potential for the currency in the future due to the asset’s essence. “We firmly believe in the long-term prospects of bitcoin based on its design (decentralized, limited supply, etc.) and the utilities that are derived from its design,” they emphasize.
However, he stresses that the magnitude of the asset’s returns has decreased with each cycle, as shown in the following chart. The first bull cycle saw a 100-fold increase (from $12 to $1,200), the second 32-fold (from $600 to $19,000), the third 8-fold (from $8,500 to $69,000).
“Extrapolating from observation, it is suggested that the current bull market will conservatively yield a 2-3x return,” he says. That would take its price to $100,000. While such an increase is not as significant as previous ones, he concludes that it is still a good opportunity. fairly good with respect to a financial asset.
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