In summary
- The subtlety of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s words caused confusion and price fluctuations at Polymarket.
- A bet on Polymarket hinged on whether Kennedy would fold on Friday, raising more than $300,000.
- Kennedy’s chances of retirement fell to 6% as he spoke, but then rose to 99% before plummeting.
A simple yes or no can still be tricky. The subtlety of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s words sparked palpable confusion and wild price swings at Polymarket after the independent presidential candidate suspended his campaign for U.S. president.
A bet on Polymarket that has raised more than $300,000 hinged on whether the heir to the Kennedy political dynasty would “retire on Friday.” The bet would settle with a “Yes,” it said, if Kennedy “officially announces his retirement” from the November election, which is expected to be very close.
As Kennedy spoke, those odds plummeted to a 6% chance as the candidate insisted he was not dropping out of the race entirely. Rather, Kennedy said he was withdrawing his name from the ballot in key states like Arizona, which could influence the final outcome of the election.
The sharp drop occurred within minutes as Polymarket traders had calculated a 90% chance that Kennedy would pull out on Friday shortly before he spoke in Arizona. At one point, those odds rose to 99% before plummeting.
“I’m not ending my campaign, I’m just suspending it,” Kennedy said. “Our polls consistently showed that by staying on the ballot in key states, I would likely hand the election to Democrats, with whom I disagree on the most existential issues.”
As confusion spread, Polymarket traders discussed whether the bet should be settled in both directions. Meanwhile, the odds of Kennedy pulling out yesterday were steadily increasing. However, as of this writing, the market was leaning towards “No,” with a 41% chance of Kennedy pulling out.
“What the hell is going on?” asked Polymarket user Donkov, who was buying and selling shares that Kennedy would pull back at least 10 times over the course of an hour.
“I’m watching the stream and I have no idea what this guy is trying to say,” added Polymarket user GreedyMacFear. “So I sold all my ‘NO’.”
Polymarket is no stranger to controversial outcomes. The platform has weathered several this year, including a $680,000 bet in June that hinged on whether LayerZero, an omnichannel interoperability protocol, had actually performed an airdrop.
That market was contested, leaving the outcome to UMA, a DeFi protocol that resolves disputes using tokens. UMA token holders must vote on which outcome actually took place, through a process UMA describes as its “decentralized truth machine.”
Some Polymarket users posted media articles supporting their bets. For example, one Fox News article that was shared said Kennedy “withdrew his bid for the White House,” while a Reuters article indicated Kennedy “dropped his campaign on Friday.”
As of writing, Polymarket’s bet on Kennedy had not been contested. Notably, it had not been settled either, as the bet is scheduled to come to a conclusion on Friday at midnight.
Edited by Ryan Ozawa.
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