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Tesla’s 2024 was marked by bold decisions by its CEO, Elon Musk, and an impressive stock market appreciation that exceeded 70%.
However, not everything was smooth sailing for the electric vehicle giant. This year was full of challenges, big revelations, and strategic decisions that positioned Tesla for the future.
Here we explore the highlights and what could be coming in 2025.
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The turn towards robotaxi and affordable EVs
In January, Tesla announced that its production growth would be “markedly lower” in 2024. This warning, coupled with questions about its profitability in March, caused the company’s shares to hit their lowest point in almost a year. The situation did not improve with a significant first quarter delivery default and fierce competition in the Chinese market.
We see in the graph of Tesla shares, during 2024 to date, how its maximum price was recorded on December 18, reaching $487.87 per share. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Given this scenario, Musk opted to change the narrative by announcing that Tesla would reveal its long-awaited robotaxi in August. This announcement created uncertainty among investors, who feared that prioritizing this project would mean delaying or abandoning the launch of an affordable electric vehicle (EV). Analysts such as Deutsche Bank’s Emmanuel Rosner expressed concern, noting that the focus on the robotaxi could compromise a key strategy for Tesla.
In April, Tesla confirmed that it would accelerate the development of more accessible vehicles while working on the robotaxi. This announcement calmed the markets and improved investor confidence. However, design and functionality issues delayed the robotaxi’s presentation until October 10. During that period, Musk’s public support for President-elect Donald Trump sparked controversy and led some investors to sell their shares.
Finally, in October, Tesla unveiled the Cybercab, its robotaxi, at a Hollywood-style event. Although the presentation lacked technical and production details, analysts highlighted the long-term potential of this project. ARK Invest’s Tasha Keeney called the robotaxi “a key piece in Tesla’s future” and projected that it could account for two-thirds of the company’s value within five years.
Additionally, Tesla reinforced its commitment to an affordable EV, known as the Model Q, scheduled for launch in the first half of 2025. This model is expected to be priced under $30,000 with subsidies included, according to Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu.
Musk’s salary confrontation
Earlier this year, a judge in Delaware invalidated Musk’s record $56 billion pay package, calling it “unfair” to shareholders. Musk responded publicly, stating that he was not comfortable leading Tesla without at least 25% voting control in the company. This salary conflict became a critical point during 2024.
In June, shareholders again approved Musk’s controversial pay package, which initially appeared to resolve the issue. However, in December, the same judge invalidated the agreement again, leaving the dispute pending until 2025. This situation could even reach the Supreme Court, maintaining tension over the Tesla leader’s compensation.
Analysts such as Wedbush’s Dan Ives highlighted Musk’s importance to the perception of Tesla as a disruptive technology leader. “Any move by Musk toward a new AI company would be a significant blow to Tesla,” Ives warned.
Support for Trump and its effects on Tesla
Musk’s support for President-elect Donald Trump sparked controversy, but also significantly boosted Tesla’s stock. The day after the election, stocks rose 15% and racked up an impressive 90% gain for December. Reports that the Trump administration could relax regulations on autonomous driving boosted investor expectations.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives estimated that the artificial intelligence and autonomy market could add at least $1 trillion to Tesla’s value under an innovation-friendly government. Additionally, he predicted that Tesla could reach a market capitalization of $2 trillion by the end of 2025, thanks to growing demand in China and advancements in its autonomous vision.
What to expect in 2025?
Next year promises to be critical for Tesla, with the launch of the Model Q in the first half of the year and possible advances in its robotaxis technology. However, it also faces significant uncertainties, such as the resolution of Musk’s salary dispute and potential regulatory challenges.
Tesla has proven time and time again its ability to innovate and defy market expectations.
If Musk manages to balance his ambitious projects with the interests of investors, 2025 could be another historic year for the company. But as always with Tesla, unpredictability is part of the journey.
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