Different factors reflect optimism for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) currently, despite the fact that it continues in a long period of consolidation.
With the arrival of a new all-time high price in March around $73,700 (USD), bitcoin has subsequently succumbed to a wide range below that has now lasted for seven months. Although, according to its recent behavior, the market is showing strength to overcome this stage.
It’s been more than two months since bitcoin is experiencing a mini bullish trend (within a bearish macrotrend), recording increasingly higher minimum and maximum prices. Since this breaks the bearish streak experienced in the previous five months, the market is getting closer to forming a golden cross.
The crossing of a cross is called a golden cross. moving average simple (SMA) price above a long-term one. Mainly, this is taken into account based on the 50 and 200 days, since they are strong margins representative of such time frames.
The golden cross is a pattern in the technical analysis of price charts that indicates a possible confirmation of the bullish trend of an asset. This is because it shows that short-term demand is gaining greater strength. That is why this milestone is considered a buy signal by different traders.
As the following chart shows, bitcoin’s 50-day SMA has been rising for a month, while the 200-day SMA is experiencing a slight decline. In this way, both lines are getting closer, something that if they continue like this will lead to their crossing, that is, to a golden cross.
Bitcoin’s 50-day SMA (green line) and 200-day SMA (red line). Fountain: TradingView.
The last time such a golden cross was given was at the end of October last year. That technical setup preceded a sustained bullish trend that took bitcoin from $28,000 to $73,700 in five months, a 160% rise.
Markets tend to repeat patterns due to the psychology of traders, so It would not be surprising if this trend occurs again today with October here present. This month has historically been the most bullish for the currency, as shown below, which adds points in favor of demand gaining strength.
Bitcoin price performance by month in recent years. Fountain: Coinglass.
October may close bullish for bitcoin, but better months would come
With the current environment, this month is likely to end higher unless unexpected events affect market sentiment. For example, demand could be harmed if data emerges that fuel expectations of a global recession or if the military conflict in the Middle East and/or Russia-Ukraine escalates.
Something that could be a catalyst for bitcoin as the end of the month approaches is the focus on the elections. presidential elections in the United States. These, which will be on November 5, are being seen as a key point for the cryptoasset market. This is because the candidates have expressed their support for the industry.
It should be noted, however, that the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, has gone beyond simple support for the industry. He plans to maintain national reserves in bitcoin if he wins and even fire Gary Gensler, president of the SEC, a regulator that has hindered the advancement of the cryptoasset industry.
Therefore, Given the greater probabilities of a Trump victory in the elections, the market could find strength to continue rising. According to Cryptocurrency bets on the platform Polymarket64% expect the Republican to win, suggesting a good outlook for bitcoin.
Trump is the favorite candidate in Polymarket. Source: Polymarket, screenshot by CriptoNoticias.
However, due to where bitcoin is currently, it is most likely that this month will not be the most bullish in relation to the future. The fact that it remains in a sustained period of consolidation demonstrates the strength to reach new all-time high prices.
Although the price of bitcoin achieved a new record this year, it is barely 6% higher than what it had until then, which was USD 69,000 in 2021. Historically, in each bullish cycle, the currency exceeded its maximum from the previous cycle for a percentage increase of three to four figures. This can be seen in the next graph.
Bitcoin price in US dollars (USD) over the last few years. Source: own graph generated by TradingView.
This gives the idea that Bitcoin still has a lot to go up in the current cycleto follow their typical behavior. It should be considered, however, that its capitalization is now significantly higher than in past cycles, which is why it requires higher demand volumes to see price increases like before.
The key now is for bitcoin to exceed USD 68,000
With the upward trend that bitcoin has maintained for more than two months, it reached 68,000 dollars (USD) this week, where it has currently perceived endurancethat is, difficulty to overcome.
The price has not touched USD 68,000 for three months, so it is logical that it suffers resistance in this area. This is also what happened when it reached USD 66,000 a month ago for the first time in two months and USD 65,000 three months ago then a drop to USD 49,000.
Resistances are temporary and, as long as buyers continue buying at levels close to one in progress, it tends to be overcome. That is why currently It is key that the price remains close to USD 68,000 to break this barrier upwards and continue the upward trend.
Breaking such a barrier could lead the coin to resistances previously seen at $70,000 and then $73,000. If this occurs while it records higher and higher low prices, it will possibly be a bomb for the bullish sentiment to exalt taking bitcoin to new all-time highs.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of CriptoNoticias. The author’s opinion is for informational purposes and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.
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