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Bitcoin would be going through a bearish correction that does not cancel the bullish macrotrend.
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The bitcoin rally is driven by 3 unprecedented forces, says VanEck.
Bitcoin (BTC) reached historical milestones this month, surpassing $100,000 on December 5 and reaching a maximum of $108,000 on the 17th.
Given these levels, VanEck, an investment management company based in New York, reaffirmed its projection of which bitcoin could reach $180,000 in 2025driven by macroeconomic trends and market forces.
According to the company, the current rally of bitcoin It is due to “three unprecedented forces”: the institutional adoption of the asset as a reserve, the increase in speculation with altcoins and the emerging synergies between cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence.
The company maintains that, despite the downward corrections that could reach up to 40% in the short term, These forces support a sustained bullish trajectory for bitcoin in the medium term.
VanEck highlighted that funding rates and relative unrealized gains show that the market is in a stage with high growth potential over the next six months.
This push coincides with growing interest from corporations and financial institutions seeking to integrate bitcoin into their investment strategies.
Bitcoin (BTC) price in the last 12 months. Source: CoinGecko.
Institutional adoption and regulations
This month marked a milestone in corporate bitcoin adoption when the Nasdaq100 joined MicroStrategythe publicly traded company with the largest amount of bitcoin in custody reaching 444,262 BTC.
The company led by bitcoiner Michael Saylor becomes the first bitcoin-focused company to be included in the index.
As a result, funds and ETFs that track the Nasdaq now they expose their investors to the bitcoin accumulated by the companywhich reinforces the connection between traditional financial markets and the crypto asset.
On the legislative front, the United States is evaluating proposals to strengthen its position in the global bitcoin market.
The Bitcoin Law of 2024, presented by Senator Cynthia Lummis, proposes that the US Treasury acquire one million BTC within five years as a measure to mitigate economic risks such as inflation and global de-dollarization.
President-elect Donald Trump has also signaled his intention to promote policies to consolidate bitcoin’s position as a national strategic reservewhich could include executive actions such as stopping the sale of confiscated bitcoin or repurposing government funds to acquire the digital currency.
If legislation to establish a bitcoin reserve is not passed, Trump could initiate it anyway, through executive actions such as stopping the sale of confiscated bitcoin, reevaluating gold certificates and tapping the Exchange Stabilization Fund, VanEck notes.
VanEck foresees the return of crypto winter
VanEck expects the bitcoin bull market to continue into 2025, reaching an initial peak during the first quarter of the year.
However, the company anticipate setbacks up to 30% during the summer in the northern hemisphere, due to the low economic activity typical of the season.
Subsequently, it expects a second peak towards the end of the year, driven by the global economic recovery and a renewed interest in digital assets.
Bitcoin beyond 2025
Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, assured that bitcoin would reach 3 million of dollars by the year 2050.
This forecast It is based on a model developed by VanEck, taking into account a very long-term horizon.
That model includes the assumption that “bitcoin will become a reserve asset used in global trade and that central banks around the world will have a 2% allocation in it,” Sigel said.
Although — as he says — it may sound extreme, “it is a compound annual growth rate of 16% for a couple of decades. Therefore, seeing the price in millions of dollars in the medium term is something of high conviction.”
VanEck’s prediction reinforces the vision of bitcoin as a strategic asset in the global financial landscape. As its institutional adoption progresses and regulatory frameworks are implemented in key economies, bitcoin’s growth appears to be supported by solid fundamentals. However, setbacks along the way underscore the volatile nature of the currency, reminding investors that their ideal horizon should be long-term.
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