Key facts:
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At Polymarket, almost no one believes ETH will break $10,000 this year.
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Ether ETFs have pushed the asset’s price down due to money outflows.
Ethereum‘s Cryptocurrency, ether (ETH), is experiencing a significantly weak performance, despite being the crypto asset with the largest market capitalization after Bitcoin (BTC). This situation has been lowering the bullish expectations of its market.
Although both assets have remained in a corrective sideways phase over the past six months after a sustained rise for more than a year, their performance is very different. ether registers an increase of only 4% so far in 2024while bitcoin of 34%, as seen below.
BTC price in orange and ETH price in blue. Source: TradingView.
This puts ether trading 51% below its all-time high of $4,900 (USD) recorded three years ago in the 2021 bull market. This is where it differs from bitcoin, which is 23% below its new price record (USD 73,700) set just six months ago.
The probability of ETH surpassing $10,000 in 2024 has dropped from 18% to 5% in three months, according to bets placed on the platform PolymarketIn the app, shown below, users can bet on their prediction and earn money if it comes true. Currently, there is more than USD 645,000 invested in the bet.
Probability of ETH price exceeding $10,000 in 2024, according to bettors. Source: Polymarket.
Part of the weakness in the ether market is due to the Departures of capital that the listed funds have received (ETF) of the currency launched in the United States less than two months ago. These correspond to one of them, Grayscale’s ETHE, which previously operated outside the exchange.
Since ETFs invest directly in cryptocurrency, management companies must buy ETH in proportion to the inflows they receive or sell based on outflows. Consequently, its almost constant negative flow since its launch, as shown in the chart, There has been downward pressure on the price.
Daily inflows and outflows of US Ethereum ETFs since launch. Source: Sosovalue.
“Very little interest in these products,” commented Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, an issuer of crypto-asset exchange-traded funds, said: “Ethereum ETFs are traded at significantly lower volume than bitcoin ETFs, below the volume and market cap ratio of ETH-BTC on exchanges.
“This is a result of several factors, and one of the most important is that major trading desks do not yet offer ETH ETFs,” Thorn said. Its integration into investment platforms could contribute to a cryptocurrency rally.
Further declines for ETH and a rally in Q4 are not ruled out
With the current performance, the trader recognized as Eljaboom precise that ETH is still trading above the moving average exponential level (EMA 50), which is a positive signal. As seen below, this level, which is now at USD 2,000, often functions as a mediumso a relapse up to that point is not ruled out.
The candles show the ETH price per month and the yellow line shows the EMA 50. Source: Elja.
With ETH currently trading around $2,400 following the recent capitulation, Elja believes that There is still time for an upward break of USD 4,000the 2024 high set six months ago. “Now comes the boring phase, in which the price continues to trade within a certain range,” he predicts.
“I am convinced that there will be no breakout before the fourth quarter,” the expert says. Based on this, he projects that next year the cryptocurrency will reach new historical highs.
This comment takes place, as reported by CriptoNoticias, while There are expectations that, towards the end of 2024, the bitcoin and cryptoasset market will resume its rise, due to the reduction of interest rates in the United States and the beginning of autumn in the northern hemisphere.
This monetary policy lowers the yields on Treasury bonds, which tends to generate a rotation of capital to the markets. This can be strengthened by the aforementioned season, in which the demand for risk usually increases due to the reactivation of economic activities after the summer holidays. In turn, this matches Also with the moment when bitcoin has historically had a bullish momentum after the halving.
The trader known by his pseudonym Poseidon highlights that the price of ETH tested the current zone as support on multiple occasions over the past month and did not get much of an upward reaction. “It makes me think that the USD 2,450 level will not hold again,” he mentions. Therefore, he has closed his bullish positions and expects a drop to USD 2,300.
For the trader who identifies himself on the networks as MagsETH could fall back towards the beginning of 2025 to the ascending trend line of lows that it has had since 2022. This would take its price to the lowest values of the year. In this way, it specifies that it would form a double bottom figure, which consists of two floors divided by a peak.
ETH price projection. Source: Mags.
Typically, a double bottom pattern, as shown in the chart above, culminates in a rise. It is a technical structure that allows an uptrend to consolidate by testing its bottom.
In this sense, Various projections are on display for the price of ETHalthough they generally agree that it is possible for it to improve in the medium term if the bull market is reactivated.
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