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For the VanEck firm, the price of Bitcoin will reach USD 3 million.
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In the short term, the US elections will impact the price of bitcoin.
The issuing and managing companies of spot bitcoin (BTC) ETFs in the United States have their predictions about the price of the digital currency, and they all seem to agree that it will reach figures not yet seen, both in the short and long term.
A little more than 10 months since the issuance of these instruments financial, ETFs have taken a leading role in the traditional marketfacilitating the adoption of bitcoin and generating a bullish effect that could take the price of this digital currency to new heights.
This happens because spot ETF management companies must buy and hold bitcoin in their treasuries to back their shares.
The acquisition process to back spot ETFs creates direct and tangible demand in the market. As more investors put money into these funds, the entities that manage the ETFs must acquire more bitcoin to maintain adequate support. This, in turn, reduces the amount of bitcoin available on the open market, which can lead to an increase in price due to limited supply.
Below, a graph provided by SosoValue shows the evolution over time of the amount of money that enters or leaves the funds that invest in bitcoin. A certain correlation is observed between money flows into ETFs and the price of bitcoin.
Total net inflows (green) and outflows (red) into bitcoin ETFs. Source: Soso Value.
When there are large inflows of money (green bars), the price of BTC tends to rise, and vice versa. This suggests that demand for bitcoin ETFs influences the price of the asset.
Bitcoin is near all-time high
ETFs have been instrumental in boosting bitcoin in the first quarter of the year, at which time it reached a all-time high of $73,800 in March.
At the moment, bitcoin remains close to $72,000benefiting from economic factors such as the recent rate cut of interest by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September and the depreciation of the dollar.
The latter reinforces demand for reserve assets such as bitcoin and gold, creating a favorable environment for a potential price increase.
BTC price. Source: TradingView.
However, the bitcoin market is not without volatility, particularly due to external events such as the presidential elections in the United States on November 5.
Bitcoin has become a campaign issue, and its price could fluctuate significantly depending on the winner. For investors of this currency, a victory for Donald Trump is preferable to that of Kamala Harris, since he is perceived as the most favorable candidate for cryptocurrencies, as he has informed CryptoNoticias.
As the election approaches, expectation has driven bitcoin purchaseswith many believing in a possible increase in its value if Trump is victorious.
Polymarket, a betting platform, positions Trump as the favorite one week before the elections, which has led the market to anticipate through purchases that could raise the price of bitcoin.
US Presidential Election Prediction Source: Polymarket.
In fact, Trump has promised to establish a Bitcoin National Reserve and strengthen the Mining industry of cryptocurrencies in the United States, something that many consider good news for digital currencies.
VanEck sets the bar high for bitcoin
The American investment firm VanEck, issuer of the VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) fund, has shown long-term bullish expectations.
According to Matthew Sigel, head of research at the company, bitcoin could reach 3 million of dollars by 2050.
That model includes the assumption that “bitcoin will become a reserve asset used in global trade and that central banks around the world will have a 2% allocation in it.”
Although — as he says — it may sound extreme, “it is a compound annual growth rate of 16% for a couple of decades. Therefore, seeing the price in millions of dollars in the medium term is something of high conviction.
Regarding the rise in price that bitcoin has had in recent days—reaching $73,000—Sigel suggests that it may be due to expectations of a Trump victory.
“Trump is clearly the most pro-crypto and bitcoin candidate, while Vice President Harris has not said a single word about it.”
Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck.
Although Harris has given his opinion on the subject, he has not delved into his vision of this sector, which is why he does not seem to convince the bitcoiner electorate.
Ark Invest has a price for bitcoin in 2030
Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, predicts, like Sigel, a significant increase for bitcoin.
ARK Invest owns one of the bitcoin ETFs in the United States, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB). Wood had estimated in March of this year that the digital asset would reach 1 million dollars by 2030.
Cathie Wood, Founder and CEO of ARK Invest. Source: CNN.
However, after the approval of the ETFs, Wood considers that, if institutional investors allocate a little more than 5% of their portfolios to bitcoin, the price could reach up to 2.3 million dollars for that same date.
Growing institutional participation has resulted in successful ETF launches that have attracted billions of dollars in investments, supporting this ambitious projection.
Meanwhile, the ARKB fund so far has 51,000 BTC in its holdings, becoming the fourth ETF with the most bitcoin in its possession.
In Wood’s opinion, bitcoin is “a protection against devaluation, a protection against the loss of purchasing power and wealth.”
Bitwise sees a rise for bitcoin if Trump wins
The Bitwise financial company, which manages the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) fund and which has 42,839 BTC, maintains two short- and long-term perspectives.
In the short term, Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies, pointed out that the elections in the United States will be decisive for the price of the digital currency.
Park believes that a Trump victory could push the price of bitcoin to $92,000based on probability analysis and bitcoin price variations compared to electoral surveys.
It should be noted that Trump leads on Vice President Harris at Polymarket, the Cryptocurrency sportsbook, with a 67% chance of winning versus 33%. However, according to the CNN national poll47% of likely voters support Vice President Kamala Harris and an equal 47% support former President Donald Trump.
For his part, in the long term, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, esteem that bitcoin could reach $250,000 in the next four years, supported by institutional adoption and asset accumulation through ETFs.
For the entrepreneur, ETFs are going to have an effect on the volatility of bitcoin, which has been historically high, but that is something that has been decreasing and this trend will accelerate in the future, mainly due to the influence of financial instruments.
ETFs attract institutional investors to the bitcoin market. These act differently from the retailers that have dominated the bitcoin market until now. On average, institutional investors are more likely than retail investors to rebalance their portfolios (sell high, buy low) and to make consistent investments in the market (monthly, quarterly, etc.). This introduces countercyclical flows that could reduce volatility.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.
Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in the short term, according to Hashdex
Hashdex, a crypto asset investment firm, forecast that bitcoin could reach $100,000 in the short term, arguing that this is an important psychological target for the market. This was stated by Bruno Sousa, partner and director for the United States and Europe of the company.
It’s hard not to see how demand will only increase in the coming years as large brokerages put these ETFs on their platforms, institutional investors continue to invest, and a growing set of advisors recommend specific BTC allocations.
Bruno Sousa, director for the United States and Europe at Hashdex.
In the medium term, if the bullish pattern of previous cycles is repeated, bitcoin could be between $200,000 and $300,000 in 2025strengthening its role as a store of emerging digital value.
It should be noted that the company was the last to issue its fund which operates under the name Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (DEFI) and is the ETF that has the least bitcoin with just 148.
DEFI is one of the few bitcoin spot ETFs that does not use Coinbase as a custodian, the exchange, which now handles 90% of the digital asset custody of several of these funds.
Regarding bitcoin’s volatility, Sousa comments, that if it declines over a longer time horizon, along with more institutional players and fewer speculators in the space, you may already be on the path for bitcoin to gain global relevance with some central banks and potentially be an element in trade settlement by 2028.
ETFs would continue to push bitcoin
ETF specialist Eric Balchunas esteem that ETFs could reach 1 million bitcoin in their reserves before completing one year on the market.
The ETFs “have been adding about 17,000 BTC per week. That said, anything can happen, for example, a violent liquidation and all this is delayed, although it remains inevitable,” he explains.
Balchunas warned that although a sudden liquidation could slow this accumulation, Uptrend remains strong and likely inevitable.
On the other hand, if prices continue to rise and Trump wins the election, “we could see FOMO (fear of being left out) kick in and everything happens faster,” he added.
ETF managers maintain a strong growth outlook for bitcoin in the coming years, some predicting stratospheric prices of up to $3 million in the long term.
The US elections, along with the depreciation of the dollar and growing institutional support, have created a conducive environment for bitcoin to continue capturing global attention as a reserve asset and protection against inflation. Although the future is uncertain, the consensus seems to lean towards an upside scenario for bitcoin in the coming years.
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