Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $97,000 yesterday, November 27, raising hopes that it would finally reach the long-awaited $100,000. However, a pullback left the digital currency holding out at $95,000.
What prevented BTC from falling below that mark? The answer lies in the performance of bitcoin ETFs spot in the United States, which acted as a lifeline for the digital asset.
Yesterday, November 27, the ETFs of bitcoin spot recorded a day of recovery after two consecutive days of massive capital outflows.
In total, These financial instruments managed to attract inflows of 103 million dollarsan amount that stabilized the market. This resurgence contrasted with the losses recorded on Monday and Tuesday of the same week, when investors withdrew 435 million and 122 million dollars respectively, as seen in the following Soso Value chart.
Performance of bitcoin ETFs in November. Source: Soso Value.
Of the 12 ETFs that are listed on the American stock exchange, only four obtained positive results that day. He leader was Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), which raised $48 million in new capital inflows. It was followed by the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) with 40 million.
To a lesser extent, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) and the Franklin Bitcoin ETF (EZBC) also reported revenues of $11 million and $2 million, respectively.
A market paused for Thanksgiving Day
Although bitcoin remains above $95,000, as seen in the graph of TradingView, The US market closed today, November 28, due to the Thanksgiving holiday..
BTC price. Source: TradingView.
For Charles Edwards, founder of the investment firm Capriole Investments, yesterday’s drop was not unexpected.
On his X account (formerly Twitter), pointed out that Wednesdays before the holiday are usually bullish days for bitcoin, but he joked that “the turkey is killed” on Thursday, referring to the American holiday, where “bitcoin also dies a little.”
Inflation and rate cuts
At the same time, the economic context in the United States is setting the tone for the future of bitcoin.
In October, the annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.6% in October 2024compared to 2.4% in September, which was the lowest rate since February 2021, as seen in the following graph.
United States inflation. Source: Trading Economics.
This reinforces the expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not make a big cut in the interest rates in december.
If interest rates increase, “risk” assets like bitcoin tend to be negatively affected. The reason is that Treasury bonds, considered one of the safest investments in the world, are beginning to offer better returns in a high rate environment, diverting capital from riskier markets towards investments with lower risk but higher guaranteed returns.
And when will bitcoin rise?
Having said all this, some investors might be discouraged thinking that bitcoin’s rise has reached this point (which, in any case, would be something negligible to us, considering that it has gotten very close to $100,000).
But, most expectations are bullish for bitcoin. Next year, with the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States, an economic and regulatory change is expected that will directly and indirectly boost the price of cryptocurrencies.
According to analysts at the investment firm, Bernstein, bitcoin could reach $200,000 in 2025.
So, although volatility and uncertainty may reign in the short term, as January 20 (Trump’s inauguration date) approaches, BTC may possibly gain greater bullish strength. If this happens, BTC would break the psychological barrier of $100,000 and could rise to new heights.
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